The high efficiency of automated warehouses justifies investments with easily plannable throughput. In the event of major fluctuations, there is a risk of capacity bottlenecks or uneconomical vacancies. Against the backdrop of disruptive events and unexpected trends, flexibility has become a decisive criterion when planning warehouses and making investment decisions in automation technology. Using simulation and demand modeling on a daily basis, automation solutions can be dimensioned for specific applications and evaluated in terms of cost-effectiveness. The results of the recently published 4flow study "Warehouse automation and volatile demand - a strategic fit?" show that, alongside wage and equipment costs, volatility is by far the most important factor influencing the payback period of an investment in warehouse automation.

Following a three-stage planning process, fictitious warehouses in Germany were modeled in the study on the basis of realistic requirements. In the first step of the planning process, typical requirements such as target service level, goods and container characteristics as well as local factor costs are defined. With the selection of the technology in the second planning step, decision-makers enter directly into the complex field of tension of finding the best possible warehouse planning based on warehouse design, process costs and throughput capacity. 3D models and the use of reference storage systems show which technology is best suited.

In the third step, capacity-related delivery failures (stockouts) and operating costs for demand scenarios are determined based on process modeling. This enables numerous load states to be evaluated. Sensitivity analyses of input parameters such as labor costs or double cycles show the influence of assumptions. The economic efficiency is evaluated on the basis of the amortization period for the investment in automation technology - taking stockout costs into account, which are based on practical experience and scientific assumptions.
The volatility of demand has the greatest influence on costs and performance in relation to other factors. Sensitivity analyses show that the payback period for an automated warehouse increases by a factor of three, depending on fluctuations in demand, labor and equipment costs, if the pessimistic environment is used instead of optimistic assumptions. Warehouse automation with volatile demand can appear profitable from a cost perspective. However, it must be ensured that flexibility restrictions do not jeopardize the achievement of the service level. The business case for automation requires good planning and accurate forecasting of future demand.

About the speaker Jan-Niklas Grafe: Jan-Niklas Grafe is a manager at 4flow consulting. After studying industrial engineering and management at the Technical University of Dortmund, he first worked as a supply chain consultant at Miesbach Consulting Inc, Montreal, Canada and then as a consultant at 4Flow Consulting.

The digital networking days are the digital event series of the media brands INDUSTRIAL Production, KUNSTSTOFF MAGAZIN, materialfluss, LABO and Baugewerbe. From September 27 to 29, 2022, they will be dedicated to the topic of "sustainability" with practical presentations, best practice examples and workshops.

From buzzword to indispensable asset: hardly any other industry can influence the development process towards a sustainable society as much as intralogistics and logistics. The ideas of market-relevant companies for clean, efficient and flexible "green" intralogistics are good and available - the digital networking days show the current state of affairs and present products and concepts for green logistics.

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