Guest commentary

Prof. Michael Schreckenberg,

Parallel world 2025

Michael Schreckenberg teaches at the University of Duisburg-Essen as Professor of Physics of Transport and Traffic. Once a year, he addresses the readers of materialfluss: He reviews the year in a critical but humorous expert article on transport policy. A tradition that we look forward to continuing in 2024.

Smart, critical and humorous: Prof. Dr. Michael Schreckenberg. © private

If you take a closer look at what has been happening around us over the past twelve months, you increasingly get the impression that we are no longer all living in the same universe. Parallel universes" are developing, which even science has (re)discovered for itself. For a long time, this idea was alien to us, but it does indeed solve many fundamental theoretical problems, especially in quantum physics.

Same input, different perception

Of course, everyone sees and hears the world with their own eyes and ears. In purely physical terms, the input is the same for everyone, but an individually developed transformation (or rather filter) in the brain mixes a special cocktail for each individual, which of course tastes different and triggers different reactions.

In the recent past, politicians in particular have given the impression that they have simply switched to a different "program" (although linear television is actually completely "out" with young people!). Another unmistakable sign of this is how (linear) talk shows enjoy responding to specific questions with erratic answers. With parallel worlds, "we're always talking past each other" takes on a completely different meaning.

Advertisement

AI and the rescue from outside

But our cozy parallel world is obviously not enough for us. We hire avatars in a digital illusory world to represent us there. In everyday life, however, avatars do not yet play such a major role (!). However, when problems arise, we now often prefer to call on artificial intelligence for help (in the simpler versions, this is called YouTube) rather than our colleagues (who are working from home anyway). Annoyingly, you then have to spend even longer chatting to them, while you can (still!) simply switch off the AI. But times will change here too.

But if our own intelligence and artificial intelligence (created by us) can't help us, won't salvation perhaps come from outside, from outer space, from another highly developed civilization? But in which parallel universe could it live? A recent NASA study argues in a particularly shocking way that cultures capable of making contact and therefore technologically highly developed will destroy themselves within 500 years due to a structural flaw in intelligence. According to the study, we are halfway there. As sad as this is, the impression cannot be completely dismissed.

For our infrastructure, however, 250 years is almost an eternity, nothing actually lasts that long. Renovation and new construction would therefore be the order of the day, but this gives the impression of "infrastructure without structure". How can we philosophize about drive types when the flow of traffic no longer lives up to its name in many places anyway due to roadworks and traffic volumes? On January 1, 2024, more cars were registered in Germany than ever before: 49.1 million. The whole nation can easily just sit in the front seats and there will still be plenty of empty vehicles.

However, the limited color scheme of the fleet is cause for concern, as almost 80 percent of the fleet comes in white, black, grey and silver, with grey and silver accounting for the largest and growing share of almost a third. Blue and red follow far behind. Ten years ago, black still dominated, but together with the roads, traffic is now a dull gray on gray. That leaves the color of the weather, but it seems to be heading in the same direction.

Combustion engines and electric cars: peaceful coexistence?

The worlds of combustion engines and electric vehicles also seem to be developing in parallel. The competition is conscientiously ignored in the perspectives. The possibility of peaceful coexistence, or rather coexistence, is not actually envisaged as a variant. The origin of the energy required for all types of drive is also colored in shades of grey. The situation becomes particularly critical when the Jevons paradox is taken into account.

Hardly anything has been heard about this in all the heated discussions so far. This is because William Stanley Jevons discovered, or rather claimed, that an increase in efficiency in the use of raw materials through technological progress leads to an even greater use of this raw material. There are plenty of examples of this. The increase in traffic due to new roads (as a resource) is often cited, but this does not lead to less congestion. The introduction of summer time did not bring the expected energy savings either, as we can do much more in the evening.

The AI's thirst for energy

The considerably greater computing power for AI applications will be particularly painful, and this will probably already be the case in 2025. And this will also lead to significantly higher power consumption. According to estimates, AI servers alone could account for 10 percent of global electricity consumption by 2030. There is another ominous law at play here, namely Niklaus Wirth's law. While Moore's Law predicted that computing power would double every two years, Wirth added that this would not be enough to really be able to process the increasingly complex software ("fatware") faster. On the contrary, more and more unnecessary software ultimately leads to a slowdown despite increased computing power.

It will be an interesting question as to whether electricity generation and storage, which has become more efficient thanks to AI applications, will not ultimately be washed down by their growing thirst for energy. But one thing is already clear: things are becoming increasingly opaque (which they already largely are). And that's why we're bringing the next artificial intelligence into the house!

Political parallel worlds

A lot will change, especially in an area as planning-intensive as logistics. The effects cannot even begin to be estimated yet. Development cycles are becoming ever shorter, competition ever greater, time frames ever narrower and costs, including energy costs, ever higher. The automotive industry is already showing impressively where the journey (not just in 2025) can take us.

This makes it all the more astonishing for a politician to want to keep the (actually unpopular) post of transport minister at all costs, come party exit time. Not only that, but Volker Wissing, who has no party affiliation, is now also a key minister in the justice department. This opens up completely new parallel political worlds, which he can now open up until the new elections. The only alternative in 2025 will be to immerse ourselves in the digital alternative world of the metaverse. Just make sure no one cuts the power supply!

  • Xing Icon
  • LinkedIn Icon
Advertisement
Advertisement

You might also be interested in

Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Editorial

Tackling challenges

The year 2024 is almost over and was characterized by drastic economic and political events. Most recently, the break-up of the German government's traffic light coalition and the results of the US elections at the beginning of November made...

read more...
Subscribe to our newsletter
Advertisement
Back to home