Today, the potato fields are more likely to be heating laws, climate funds, energy price brakes or fuel price accelerators. Today this, tomorrow that. And the result is, without the need for major research activities: Uncertainty. Rarely has information been disseminated in such a "volatile" manner as in 2023. The mobility and transport sector in particular needs to pay the utmost attention. The slightest political hints give rise to fears of drastic changes.

Traffic on our roads has "recovered" after corona, meaning it has risen to the level before and even above. Hopes for "sustainability" in the decline beyond corona have not been fulfilled. The more flexible working world with variable working hours on site poses an almost unsolvable dilemma for public transport. For many people, rush hour is no longer in the morning or evening; they can also travel there or back at lunchtime. The result can be seen in the commuter statistics. The car is becoming much more important again.

The local delivery industry is also booming. If you don't see several vehicles from different suppliers driving past you every day, you are simply living in no man's land and should be worried. Because Corona has also confidently outlasted online ordering. Retailers are groaning under all the - free shipping! - offers. And if the food service industry is hit with 19% VAT from 2024 for consumption on site, it won't be able to digest it so easily - it's simply too heavy a burden.

The succession of crisis situations runs like a red thread through recent history. Most of the time, things go haywire, but we don't want that to get out. But this is often only partially successful, because nothing ensures more journalistic transparency than absolute confidentiality! The fact that this is sometimes done deliberately to test the potential reaction (the outcry!) of the public is perfectly legitimate. Nevertheless, there is a certain, or rather, clear uncertainty inherent in the process and does not demonstrate sovereignty. There will certainly be several attempts at this in 2024.

The measure of satisfaction with a government has always been linked to the prices that are most visible in the public sphere: fuel prices. This is where the battle between electric vehicles and combustion engines is currently taking place. With hefty surcharges, especially on diesel prices, the "one" traffic turnaround is being longed for. It has always been a mystery to what extent the people responsible for this are still sensitive to people's feelings. In any case, to put it diplomatically, it seems to be a very difficult undertaking that many are simply not up to. There is no other explanation for many decisions. Unfortunately, ideological guidelines often outweigh simple, comprehensible arguments.

The price of diesel is a decisive factor for the transport industry in particular. With the desire for additional revenue, tax-exempt kerosene naturally also comes into focus. However, a European solution would of course have to be found so as not to put German airports at too great a disadvantage. Or, to paraphrase Reinhard Mey: "Only above the clouds is freedom still limitless".

Below that, it tends to get bogged down in traffic jams in front of dilapidated bridges and other construction sites. A problem that is not exactly being solved any faster due to a lack of funding. The timescales involved are indeed breathtaking. For example, the renovation of what is probably Germany's most complex highway junction Kaiserberg (A3/A40) near Duisburg, better known as the "spaghetti junction", is scheduled to take a whopping eight years. Anyone familiar with such projects will know that this is only the lower limit. After all, no one knows what else might happen and turn up along the way.

However, a volcanic eruption is rather unlikely in the region, although eruptions are currently expected in various places in Europe. Whether it's the three Italian ash eruptions (Etna, Vesuvius, Phlegraean Fields) or the Icelandic Fagradalsfjall (great name, but unforgettable "Eyjafjallajökull" in 2010) or the area around the fishing village of Grindavik ("Grid Bay"), in any case the aviation industry is looking anxiously at the sky to see whether there are any other dark floating particles besides the clouds that would cause operations to be suspended, at least locally.

In such cases, the call for artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming louder and louder these days. Many an angry voice grumbles that artificial stupidity should be dealt with first, as it can usually better reflect reality. Well, the chatbots fed with crazy amounts of data, above all ChatGPT, actually lead to astonishing, even linguistically not unreasonable results at first glance, although the underlying processes are ultimately purely statistical in nature. This in turn suggests the reverse conclusion that in normal life we are at least only capable of random linguistic products ...

However, a discussion on whether these systems could develop a "consciousness" regularly leads to very controversial discussions. After all, the whole of humanity could be threatened by this. This allegedly almost led to the self-destruction of the leading company Open AI, as they thought they were already close to the artificial mind abyss with Q*. The boss Sam Altman was first dismissed, but then immediately reinstated. These algorithms are probably already responsible for all the back and forth today, more than we could have dreamed!

About the author: Prof. Dr. Michael Schreckenberg, born in 1956, studied theoretical physics at the University of Cologne, where he received his doctorate in statistical physics in 1985. In 1994, he moved to the University of Duisburg-Essen, where he was awarded the first German professorship for the physics of transport and traffic in 1997.