The ups and downs of the maltreated motorist's emotions, especially those of diesel drivers, have really picked up speed in 2018. We are constantly receiving new horror reports, almost like a tsunami, that do not bode well. Like the groundhog that greets us every day, objectively "inexperienced" judges are deciding on driving bans wherever they are. Completely unsettled, old-school car enthusiasts no longer know whether they should join a model declaratory action or simply carry on driving as before.

Nobody can hear the word "nitrogen oxides" (the "substance" was quickly rationalized out of the middle) anymore anyway. At some point, the brain switches off (not such a bad thing when it comes to pollutants!). If you live next to a church, you can no longer hear the bells ringing anyway (personal experience!), so the relatively arbitrary limit values in micrograms per cubic meter quickly become a warning sign that brings with it a certain doomsday mood. You can't really imagine anything concrete anyway. The question also arises as to where this value actually comes from. We are also shocked to learn that a limit value of only 950 micrograms has been set for "healthy workers" in industry and trade. The reason given is that the daily and weekly working hours are limited (40 hours) and occupational health care is available. So, it works, just more care on the road! And people are arguing about 40 or 50 micrograms. One is reminded of German philistinism, the limits are somehow limitless, as long as they are adhered to. How much pollutant is actually allowed in ministries? A recent study by the Jülich Research Center found that trucks, vans and buses are actually the problem. More than half of the nitrogen oxides in city centers come from these sources. Only a third is due to car pollution. And once again we are faced with an environmental policy void. What is true, what should (or do we want to) do? The wall is closer than the nothingness at the end of the tunnel!

And no measuring stations may be set up either in front of the wall or in the tunnel. This is a huge issue, and the dispute is only just beginning. Has something been misinterpreted in many places? The location should be "representative" of a district, but not the point of highest pollution. Probably the number one topic for 2019, it won't let us breathe in peace any time soon.

Particulate matter? Something is brewing!
But people forget that the real enemy is particulate matter. The problem is seen as solved in many places. In this respect, the mood is more likely to be resolved, because particulate matter cannot simply be dissolved. Unlike nitrogen oxides, particulate matter continuously accumulates in the body. The finer the more dangerous, with carcinogenic substances, as a Swiss study recently confirmed. And this problem mainly affects petrol engines with turbochargers and direct injection. Does the particulate filter really help? Just swapped your diesel for a petrol engine and now this? Something is brewing, without hops and malt. Cheers to 2019 too!
This is how we breathe our way from one pollutant to the next. Carbon dioxide is harmful, but not directly, but rather in the long term, up in the atmosphere. Studies that have just been published suggest a bleak future. But who really cares about these scenarios? And let's not forget, if we reduce nitrogen oxides, consumption will increase and with it carbon dioxide, the devil will be cast out with Beelzebub, only we will see it (or him?) even less ... So we are lurching around in the pollutant universe without a concept, the astronauts from the ISS are looking at this "with relish" from above. Only there the danger is quite different, namely space debris, which is quite visible. In contrast, the dangerous plastic waste in our oceans is not actually visible in the end, but it also ends up in our bodies. So will 2019 be the year of pollutants and waste?

Speaking of scrap: what actually happens to the exchanged diesel vehicles? The scrap press would be happy to receive them, but they are more likely to be found in less polluting regions such as Eastern Europe or North Africa. Whether they are exchanged or retrofitted, the automotive industry will benefit in any case. And what about the foreign vehicles in our country ...? In all the debates, we should not forget that a stab in the heart of the automotive soul can be very emotionally painful. And these emotions should not be underestimated. Especially as many people feel they have been taken for a ride by politicians. If they come up with an offer today, the next thing they say is, I'm not afraid to take it back. Sometimes you are reminded of Goethe's Faust I (for those who have studied it): "People usually believe that if they only hear words, they must be able to think something." Thinking is one of those things, because you never know who is thinking (or not). And the average motorist doesn't care that much about climate targets and other "boundary conditions" anyway. Between 2013 and 2017, the number of new SUV registrations increased by an impressive 112 percent (in figures: to 521,000), while the growth in genuine off-road vehicles was still 37 percent (to 299,000).

Roadworks are a better sell than driving bans!
The issue of pollutants in 2019 (and far beyond) should therefore be regarded as marginal. We already have enough driving bans today. Renovation measures everywhere, bridge closures and road renewal and widening are no longer allowing traffic to flow smoothly. Conspiracy theorists could come to the conclusion that roadworks are simply easier to sell than driving bans, but the result is much more "resounding" ...

A rogue who thinks that, but thinking is probably reserved for rogues anyway. After all, who actually suspects a "higher intelligence" behind most construction projects? A lack of skilled workers, both on the planning and execution side, timeframes that cannot be adhered to, unrealistic financing plans and, perhaps most importantly, a lack of coordination between measures. There is no end in sight to this dilemma, BER and Stuttgart 21 are actually everywhere, you just have to look closely enough! So let's take refuge in vague technical visions of the future. The magical word "autonomous" has now taken over all areas of our lives and, like the unspeakable word "sustainable", no longer really means anything. Everywhere, and especially on the road, people are philosophizing about vehicles that move and steer themselves. It is only a matter of time before we all get into these unconventional means of transportation. This could have fatal consequences. Perhaps at some point they will simply leave us standing, developing a life of their own. Because then it will probably just get too colorful for the cars. Then they will go off on their own, drive to the car wash to take a shower or meet up with others in a parking lot. In the end, they drive themselves to the scrapyard - not without having sent a selfie of themselves first. What's missing is the realization that humans are also somehow autonomous. Politicians have their suspicions: the car is going to hit the wall in 2019!

About the author
Prof. Dr. Michael Schreckenberg, born in 1956, studied theoretical physics at the University of Cologne, where he received his doctorate in statistical physics in 1985. In 1994, he moved to the University of Duisburg-Essen, where he was awarded the first German professorship for the physics of transport and traffic in 1997. Since 2012, Schreckenberg has been summarizing the year coming to an end for LT-manager.