However, the British government is caught up in debates and trench warfare between Brexit supporters and opponents. At the end of July 2018, there are hardly any tangible results and a hard Brexit is becoming increasingly likely. The reaction would be the same as the day after the referendum - a "how could this happen?" The difference: miles of traffic jams at the EU exit border points to the UK and outside the port of Dover and at all airports. The flight situation in particular could come to a head. As the UK will also withdraw from all aviation agreements in the event of a hard Brexit, take-off, landing and overflight rights could initially be lost.

As a result, 1,000 new customs officers and around 100 veterinarians are being sought in the Netherlands - there are warnings of truck congestion, especially for animal and food transportation. France wants to fill around 700 new positions and is expecting extreme traffic situations and permanent traffic jams in Calais. In addition to more staff, Belgium also wants to deploy sniffer dogs and new technologies such as drones, while Ireland has calculated that 1,000 additional customs officers are needed. The always demanded "invisible border" seems to have become unrealizable and many residents fear a resurgence of conflicts at the Irish-British border.

The first industrial companies, such as Airbus, have announced that they will relocate their production to the EU in the event of a hard Brexit, as the potential delays will be incalculable. Warehouses in the UK have already been closed and many EU companies are currently increasing their stocks of urgently needed
urgently needed supplier parts from the UK and are looking for alternative suppliers. In turn, storage capacities for EU spare parts are being built up in the UK in order to guarantee supply to the market.

What will change?
If the parties concerned do not find a joint transitional solution very quickly, the United Kingdom will inevitably become a third country based on the WCO agreements on March 30, 2019. This means that maximum controls will apply. After many discussions with the British, it seems certain that there will be no exit from Brexit, even if many Europeans and certainly some Britons are not giving up hope. In practice, this will lead to new (old) borders in Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Every border inevitably requires formalities and these include checks on people and goods, as well as the submission of import and export declarations for the commercial movement of goods. Controls can be reduced to a minimum through agreements and, if necessary, shifted from the physical-legal national border to other points, but not completely avoided. Simplifications can also be agreed for the submission of customs declarations - but they cannot be avoided in principle under the current framework conditions.

Whether there will also be a free trade agreement, a customs union, an alignment/adoption of export controls and other measures can of course be negotiated and ultimately agreed. And even if the successful conclusion of a free trade agreement has rarely been faster than four years - why not six to 12 months in the case of the UK? If everyone is in agreement, this is not fundamentally impossible. Of course, experience with previous agreements has taught us otherwise. It can therefore be assumed that there will be some unknowns until "the end" and that companies may have to react very quickly on some issues.

Which areas are affected in addition to import and export?

In addition to traditional customs declarations, the following areas are also affected by the UK's withdrawal:

Import and export licenses
Customs duties/preferences/rules of origin
Amendment of long-term supplier's declarations (LLE)
Registrations
Processing by service providers (availability, capacities)
Product norms/standards
Processing in air traffic
(previously: simplification through open sky agreements)
Waiting times/traffic jams in road traffic due to checks and formalities
Shifts in finance and insurance (are services still available, secured and therefore useful?)
Exchange rate risks
Investment risks (Will the existing investment protection remain in place?)
Approval of auditors and supervisors
Abolition of the free movement of persons (visa requirement?)
Restrictions in the area of
Education exchange programs
Legal certainty of contracts (agree exit clauses if necessary?)
Certifications (which ones remain in place, who may test and certify?
certify?)
Brand and product protection
Tax agreements
Changes in company law, e.g. abolition of the British legal form of Ltd. in Germany

These are just a few examples (see also the DIHK checklist) that clearly show how far-reaching the changes can be, but do not necessarily have to be.

What can companies do to prepare?

Depending on their business activities with the UK, companies should at least determine:

Are there branches/subsidiaries in the UK?
Which goods are imported from/via the UK?
Which goods are exported to/via the UK?
Which British standards/regulations are applicable, if any?
What would be the consequences of the loss of previous preferences for goods from the UK or the loss of preferential treatment for goods deliveries to the UK?
What consequences (including contractual penalties, MHD) would delays in the import and export of goods have?
Will the service providers used be able to guarantee that the customs declarations to be created in future can be created promptly and correctly (staff shortage!)?
What are the personnel consequences/requirements for your own company?

There are certainly other points to consider for each individual case. However, the basic analysis can be used to determine relatively quickly how severe the pressure of suffering can be. Companies are therefore well advised to prepare themselves now, depending on how they are affected, and to keep up to date with the latest information. With regard to customs clearance, there is a clear trend towards "smart border concepts", which are intended to ensure uninterrupted import and export processing. Models for this exist at the Norwegian-Swedish border, for example. It seems certain that these concepts will only work in practice if the partners involved have a security status on a WCO basis (AEO) and the necessary data has been reported electronically in advance. A vehicle license plate scanner could then recognize the vehicle, or the on-board unit (OBU) reports the vehicle before it crosses the border and software checks the transmitted data and partners. If everything is correct, the truck is allowed to pass. Technically, this concept would be state-of-the-art - the decisive factor is the will to implement it.

Is Brexit just the beginning?
As long as political power constellations change, nationalist ideas gain popularity in more and more countries and new political leaders break with tried and tested strategies and behaviors (for example in their attitude towards Iran), it cannot be ruled out that the movement of people and goods could be made more difficult by further events similar to Brexit. On the other hand, approaches for coalitions that were previously considered impossible are emerging faster than expected, opening up new opportunities.

The KGH Brexit Symposium on November 20/21 in Soest offers entrepreneurs the opportunity to find out about the opportunities and risks of the UK's exit from the EU as well as adequate precautionary measures. Information on the KGH Brexit Symposium, LT-manager is media partner of the event: http://www.brexit-symposium.de

About the author:
Marcus Hellmann has more than 25 years of experience in customs, IT and foreign trade. He was the founder of AOB GmbH, which is now part of KGH Customs Services and of which he is currently Director (TCC) Germany. Hellmann is the managing partner of EUWISA GmbH, based in Soest. He also has various certifications as an auditor and trainer for ISO, customs and security standards.